The Warriors’ hot start, trouble in Milwaukee and the biggest questions for NBA contenders

The first month of the 2024-25 NBA season is nearly done and we are getting early glimpses of which teams are built to make a deep run in the playoffs.

It was no surprise that the Boston Celtics were going to be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, but did anyone predict the Cleveland Cavaliers remaining undefeated and inching toward history?

Meanwhile, teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks are stumbling out the gates. All the preseason talk about winning titles has quickly turned into what could be done to salvage their seasons.

And the Western Conference? Take your pick at this point. The young Oklahoma City Thunder sit on top but don’t count out the veteran-laden teams (Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns) or the superstar-led squads (Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets).

Our ESPN insiders answer one big question on the top NBA teams with title ambitions and what they need to do to stay among the contenders.

Jump to a team:
BOS | CLE | MIA | MIL | NYK | ORL | PHI
DAL | DEN | GS | LAL | MEM | MIN
OKC | PHX | SAC

Eastern Conference

What is the biggest hurdle the Boston Celtics face in their title defense?

Health. Just look around the league with stars going down left and right. During its title run last season, the Celtics saw Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton all miss time against them (and Kristaps Porzingis for them) with injuries en route to Banner 18. Boston is already dealing with Porzingis missing the start of the season, Jaylen Brown sitting out a few games and Al Horford being managed in his late 30s. But if this team can stay healthy, the Celtics should be the clear favorites to emerge from the East this spring, and they have a chance to become the first team to repeat as champions since the Warriors in 2017-18. — Tim Bontemps

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What’s the biggest factor behind the Cleveland Cavaliers’ hot start?

It’s simple but powerful: The Cavs are making shots. They have the same roster as a year ago — and it should be noted that shooting specialists Max Strus and Sam Merrill have been knocked down with injury — that finished a pedestrian 15th in 3-point accuracy. So how do you explain why they’re shooting the best in the league at nearly 42% on 3s this year?

Well, there has been some positive luck for sure and they certainly will return to earth a little. But the Cavs’ offensive speed and ball movement mean more shots are open, and they’ve soared near the top of the league in average shot quality.

Caris LeVert, a career 34% shooter from 3, is hitting at 46%. Mitchell, a career 37% shooter, is at 42%. Darius Garland, a career 39% shooter, is at 46%. Ty Jerome, who played in only two games last season due to injury and is a career 37% shooter, is making 54%.

The Cavs will eventually lose games and start missing more 3s. But maybe not as many as anyone assumed, on either front. — Brian Windhorst

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What version of the Miami Heat is the real one?

This is the question that has hung over the Heat for more than a calendar year. In three of the past five years, the Miami Heat have made it to the Eastern Conference finals, and in two of those the Heat reached the NBA Finals. Across four of the past five seasons, however, Miami has been a bottom four seed in the East playoff picture. Entering this season, the Heat were determined to find out which of those teams they were and make a decision about their future moving forward. If they see themselves as a true contender, they can try to add to this group and make a run. But if they don’t, then some long and difficult conversations will be had before the trade deadline. — Bontemps

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What’s at stake if the Milwaukee Bucks fail to turn their season around?

The Bucks have a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo playing at an even higher level than when he won back-to-back MVP awards, which puts pressure on the franchise to maximize his prime. Consider how Milwaukee has responded in recent years when it fell short of expectations — firing a championship coach after losing in the first round in 2023 and then shaking up the roster to acquire another star in Damian Lillard. The Bucks still believe they can climb out of the 5-9 hole they have put themselves in, and they have already started to scan the trade market for help. But it will be difficult for the Bucks to make another shake-up that helps this current core, as they do not control their own first-round draft pick until 2031. — Jamal Collier

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Karl-Anthony Towns or Mikal Bridges: Which of the newest New York Knicks has made a bigger impact?

Towns, who’s surrendered a 73.3% field goal percentage within six feet on defense, is providing less statistical resistance than any big man in the league right now. It’s clearly something he and the Knicks will need to improve in order to reach their lofty goals. Still, he has managed to be far more impactful than Bridges, who has also appeared lackluster on defense this season, despite his reputation on that end.

Towns has averaged more than 30 points and 12 rebounds over his past seven games, all while enjoying career-best efficiency on the season and 50% shooting from the 3-point line. Bridges has had key moments — he had the game-sealing block Friday night against his old Brooklyn Nets teammates — but it’s also clear that he’s lacked aggression on offense. In trying to fit in with this new group, he’s shot just 11 free throws in 13 games, a rate that would be the lowest of his career by far. — Chris Herring

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How do the Orlando Magic stay competitive with Paolo Banchero out?

Stout defense and reigning Eastern Conference player of the week Franz Wagner stepping up has proved a potent combo during a six-game winning streak for the Magic.

None of Orlando’s opponents has cracked triple-digits during that winning streak, easily the longest stretch in the NBA this season. (No other defense has done it more than two consecutive games.) Overall, the Magic’s 103.9 defensive rating ranks second in the league, allowing Orlando to win with a subpar offense.

At the other end, Wagner is producing at an All-Star level, scoring 20-plus points in eight consecutive games, the longest streak of his career. He averaged 28.0 points and 5.8 assists per game in that span, similar production to Banchero’s 29.0 PPG and 5.6 APG before he went down with a torn oblique.

Ideally, pairing Wagner’s breakout start with Banchero will lift the Magic’s offense out of the NBA’s bottom 10. For now, Orlando has remained in position to earn home-court advantage in the East playoffs. — Kevin Pelton

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How do the Philadelphia 76ers climb out of the East basement while balancing load management?

The 76ers will do this by being in a conference where there is seemingly endless time for teams to get right. But this also is going to come down to the 76ers starting to win games, and getting their three stars — Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey — on the court together. Their schedule softens up over the next month, and there are few back-to-backs, meaning this is the perfect time for the three of them to build chemistry and start stacking wins. In the East there could be a point where it’s too big of a climb for Philadelphia to make. — Bontemps

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Western Conference

Do the Dallas Mavericks have enough defense to get back to the Finals?

The Mavs entered the week with the league’s ninth-ranked defense, allowing 111.0 points per 100 possessions. That’s the kind of territory that Dallas needs to be in for a chance to return to the Finals. It’s a bit surprising that the Mavs rank that high considering their personnel challenges and Luka Doncic’s glaring struggles on that end of the court coming off the calf contusion that sidelined him all preseason. If the Mavs make a move before the trade deadline, it will likely be for a defensive upgrade, although getting Dante Exum (wrist surgery) back in the rotation could have a similar effect. Under Jason Kidd and his lead assistant Sean Sweeney, the Mavs have a track record of making significant strides on the defensive end throughout the season. Just look at last season when the Mavs were mostly mediocre defensively before morphing into the league’s top-ranked unit in the final 20 games. — Tim MacMahon

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Which Denver Nuggets’ starter does Nikola Jokic need most to step up?

When Jamal Murray is playing at his best, the Nuggets have a dynamic two-star combo alongside Jokic. So far this season, Murray has shown only glimpses of his old dominant self. Murray has logged heavy minutes this season — playing 35 or more minutes in eight of his nine games, having missed three more due to concussion protocol. He has scored only 20 or more points in three games. When Jokic was out due to personal reasons for two games last Friday and Sunday, Murray scored 16 and 13 points in the two losses. He is capable of scoring that in a quarter. With Aaron Gordon still out with a calf injury, the Nuggets need Murray to find the form that helped them win the 2023 Finals. — Ohm Youngmisuk

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Which Golden State Warriors players have risen or regressed in Kerr’s 12-man rotation?

The Warriors wanted to use the first 30 games to help coach Steve Kerr to solidify his starting lineup and rotation, a source told ESPN.

But 13 games in, he’s already forming some clear ideas on his starting lineup — which features newcomer De’Anthony Melton (when he’s healthy) alongside Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Buddy Hield has cemented himself as the go-to sixth man following a strong start to the season with Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga as the next two off the bench. Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II and Moses Moody have all seen their minutes vary as Kerr lands on his rotations. However, because Kerr’s 12-man rotation has worked so well, there doesn’t seem to be too much pressure to cut people out. As it stands, no player has a problem with this. But, everything is easy to accept when you are winning. — Kendra Andrews

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How do the Los Angeles Lakers stay competitive while minimizing LeBron James’ usage?

With James declaring at the outset of the season his aim to play all 82 games in his 22nd season, there needed to be some protections put in place by coach JJ Redick. The offense has been orchestrated through Anthony Davis, resulting in a career-high 31.1 points per game — and a career-low 27.4 usage percentage for James. Beyond maximizing Davis’ prime, the hope is the distribution can allow James to pick his spots. The Lakers are second in the league in fourth quarter scoring, averaging 30.8 points per game. James is averaging 6.7 of his 23.3 PPG in the fourth quarter this season — accounting for about 29% of his scoring output on any given night. The vision came together for a vintage James performance Saturday in New Orleans when he scored 11 of his 21 points in the fourth to help L.A. grind out a road win on the second night of a back-to-back. — Dave McMenamin

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How do Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies bounce back from last season’s struggles?

Last season and the early portion of this season is a great indicator that it’s easier said than done, but all Memphis needs to do is stay healthy. Morant was suspended 25 games last season, then suffered a season-ending injury after playing in just nine games. Now, he is week to week with a hip injury. As a result of last season’s onslaught of injuries, Memphis discovered gems such as Scotty Pippen Jr. and Jay Huff who pair well with recent draft picks Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells. When all the Grizzlies’ starters return, that depth will give opposing second units problems. Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane have already made their returns from injuries and are still coming off the bench as reserves. When Morant returns, Memphis will be close to whole again. Staying that way will be the key. — Michael Wright

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What is the biggest issue the Minnesota Timberwolves need to address before they fall too far?

The Timberwolves have slipped more at the defensive end than on offense after swapping Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, but the slow start for 37-year-old Mike Conley still feels like their biggest concern.

Conley was a crucial part of last year’s Western Conference finals run, posting the highest true shooting percentage (.627) of his 18-year NBA career. That’s slipped all the way to a career-low .479 over the first month of this season. Conley has made just 34% of his 3s and, more worrisome, has seen his points in the paint drop from 2.6 per game to just 1.2.

With little quality perimeter depth outside Chris Finch’s tight eight-man rotation, things got even worse when Conley sat out last Wednesday in Portland to rest and Minnesota mustered just 98 points in a loss. The Timberwolves need Conley producing at a high level to contend. — Pelton

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How do the Oklahoma City Thunder win with a small-ball lineup until their bigs are healthy?

After Chet Holmgren went down on Nov. 10 the Thunder continued to win their next three games, beating the Clippers in a shootout and holding a couple of injury-depleted teams (Suns and Pelicans) under 90 points. Oklahoma City can survive with an extreme version of small ball — all starters are 6-foot-6 and under — by playing a swarming, scrambling style of defense that selectively double-teams, dominating the turnover battle and exploiting offensive matchups. The Thunder are asking a lot of rising star Jalen Williams, the de facto starting center until Isaiah Hartenstein has recovered from his broken hand. Williams responded by averaging 25.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks in the first four games that Holmgren missed. — MacMahon

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What’s at stake for the Phoenix Suns’ superstar players if they can’t maintain this hot start?

It’s not realistic to expect the Suns to maintain their strong start while Kevin Durant is sidelined with a calf strain, especially if Bradley Beal is also missing games. The Suns’ top priority should be figuring out how to position themselves to be in peak form for a deep playoff run. That means managing the minutes of Durant once he returns. A 36-year-old with an extensive injury history can’t reasonably average 38.8 minutes per game, as Durant did during the Suns’ 8-1 start — including going 7-0 in clutch games (when the score was within five points with less than five minutes left). The emergence of rookie Ryan Dunn and the presence of Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale gives the Suns some quality depth at forward. They need to take a less-is-more approach with Durant the rest of the regular season — even at the expense of a win here or there — to have hope of him starting deep into the spring. — MacMahon

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How will DeMar DeRozan push the Sacramento Kings over the play-in hump this season?

When the Kings acquired DeRozan over the summer, they were hoping he’d be the missing piece who would push them deeper into the playoffs.

It’s been a rocky start to the season for the Kings — plagued with injuries, inconsistency and poor bench production — but DeRozan has done all that’s been asked of him.

He’s averaging 22.9 points on 52.6% shooting in 36.5 minutes per game, and has been tremendous in the clutch, where he’s scored 36 total points this season. Teaming him up with De’Aaron Fox, who has scored a league-leading 49 clutch points, has produced exactly what Sacramento was hoping for when they made the move.

However, it hasn’t always led to wins for the 8-7 Kings. If Sacramento wants to make it back into the playoffs and beyond the first round, DeRozan will have to continue this production and the Kings will need more consistency from their role players. — Andrews